Insights

Quant reads on football betting: how the model thinks, where the value is, and the data behind the price.

3 articles
Updated daily

The number you see is not the number the model said

Every probability on the site passes through one function before it reaches you. Here is what it changes, and why we would rather tell you than not.

Cross-division cup ties15.8%

Everything else2%

Gap to market consensus in percentage points, before the correction

We measured it before we shipped anything on top of it. Here is the number, and what it means for the player markets you see days before kick-off.

It is not how often you are right. It is how often you are right about things the model was not already sure of.