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Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburgo prediction

2. Bundesliga·Germany
Hertha BSC
ELO 1699
KO
19:30
Sat 7 Nov
Model leadHome win40%
Wolfsburgo
ELO 1622

Model reading

A very even match, with a slight edge for Hertha BSC.

LOW CONFIDENCE

The model sees a very tight match, hard to call.

40%Hertha BSC29%Draw30%Wolfsburgo

Analysis based purely on the model's quantitative criteria. Not a betting recommendation.

  • Hertha BSC come in with a moderate edge in overall level.HB · +77 ELO
  • A balanced game on the goals line is expected.
Match result · 1X2Model · fair odds
40%HOME
29%DRAW
30%AWAY
OutcomeChanceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Home40%2.48--
Draw29%3.42--
Away30%3.28--
Goals · over/under and BTTSModel
GoalsChanceBest oddsValue
Over 2.554%--
BTTS · YesInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.57%--
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
Form
ⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Wolfsburgo4-2-3-1 · 40%Avg 1520 · 10/11
1
Wellenreuther
1420
6
Wahl
1556↓1
21
Maehle
1347↓1
33
Cleiton
-
26
Kumbedi
1402↓1
5
Vini Souza
1472
31
Gerhardt
1461
20
Damar
1629
17
Bernhardsson
1657↑4
11
Reese
1691↑4
19
Glatzel
1564↑1
35
Gersbeck
1681↑16
27
Kolbe
1582↑4
44
Gechter
1533↑4
2
Eitschberger
1545↑1
22
Pedersen
1299
30
Seguin
1729↑7
8
Sessa
1530
7
Brekalo J.
1620↑4
23
Thorsteinsson
1531↑3
19
Adewumi
1811↓8
17
Gronning Andersen
1475↑3
Hertha BSC4-2-3-1 · 100%Avg 1576 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Chance
Our probability that it happens.
Fair odds
The odds that match that probability: 1 / Prob.
Best odds
The bookmaker that pays most. Tap it to see them all.
Value
Prob. × Best odds − 1.
+5.5% pays more than the fair odds
-3.1% pays less (the usual case)
Full-Time (90’)10 selections
Match Result (1X2)
3 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Home40%Med2.48--
Draw29%Low3.42--
Away30%Low3.28--
Total Goals
5 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Over 0.594%High1.07--
Over 1.579%High1.27--
Over 2.554%Low1.84--
Over 3.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.31%High3.20--
Over 4.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.13%High7.52--
Both Teams To ScoreInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
2 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Yes57%Low1.77--
No43%Low2.30--
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Selections tagged “Informational” stay on the board on purpose: our calibration audit found no consistent edge over their historical base rate. We flag them instead of quietly dropping them, and their probabilities are shown unchanged.
Player props (goalscorers, shots, cards by player) appear once the confirmed lineups are published near kickoff.