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Magdeburgo vs St. Pauli prediction

2. Bundesliga·Germany
Magdeburgo
ELO 1569
KO
12:30
Sun 8 Nov
Model leadHome win42%
St. Pauli
ELO 1560

Model reading

A very even match, with a slight edge for Magdeburgo.

LOW CONFIDENCE

The model sees a very tight match, hard to call.

42%Magdeburgo28%Draw30%St. Pauli

Analysis based purely on the model's quantitative criteria. Not a betting recommendation.

  • Both teams arrive very evenly matched on overall level.
  • A high-scoring game is expected: Over 2.5 at 55%.OVER 2.5 · 55%
Match result · 1X2Model · fair odds
42%HOME
28%DRAW
30%AWAY
OutcomeChanceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Home42%2.39--
Draw28%3.55--
Away30%3.33--
Goals · over/under and BTTSModel
GoalsChanceBest oddsValue
Over 2.555%--
BTTS · YesInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.57%--
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
Form
ⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
St. Pauli4-1-3-2 · 60%Avg 1527 · 11/11
1
Voll
1511↑19
4
Nemeth
1591↑3
11
Pyrka
1522↓1
23
Oppie
1451
21
Ritzka
1460
8
Smith
1577
16
Fujita
1449
24
Metcalfe
1394↓1
20
Rasmussen
1803↑2
9
Ceesay
1682↑1
7
Niang
1356
1
Reimann
1427↑11
3
Garcia MacNulty A.
1594↑2
5
Müller
1407↑4
28
Nadjombe
1419↑6
17
Nollenberger
1541↑4
38
Hyrylainen
1595↑2
26
Musel
1558↑1
11
Chavez
1781
23
Atik
1619↑4
8
Iyoha
1537↑4
22
Zukowski
1601↓1
Magdeburgo4-3-3 · 80%Avg 1553 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Chance
Our probability that it happens.
Fair odds
The odds that match that probability: 1 / Prob.
Best odds
The bookmaker that pays most. Tap it to see them all.
Value
Prob. × Best odds − 1.
+5.5% pays more than the fair odds
-3.1% pays less (the usual case)
Full-Time (90’)10 selections
Match Result (1X2)
3 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Home42%Med2.39--
Draw28%Low3.55--
Away30%Low3.33--
Total Goals
5 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Over 0.593%High1.07--
Over 1.579%High1.26--
Over 2.555%Low1.80--
Over 3.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.34%High2.94--
Over 4.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.15%High6.62--
Both Teams To ScoreInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
2 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Yes57%Low1.76--
No43%Low2.32--
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Selections tagged “Informational” stay on the board on purpose: our calibration audit found no consistent edge over their historical base rate. We flag them instead of quietly dropping them, and their probabilities are shown unchanged.
Player props (goalscorers, shots, cards by player) appear once the confirmed lineups are published near kickoff.