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Núremberg vs Darmstadt prediction

2. Bundesliga·Germany
Núremberg
ELO 1594
KO
12:00
Sat 7 Nov
Model leadHome win49%
Darmstadt
ELO 1524

Model reading

An open match, with a slight edge for Núremberg.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

The model sees an open match.

49%Núremberg27%Draw24%Darmstadt

Analysis based purely on the model's quantitative criteria. Not a betting recommendation.

  • Núremberg come in with a moderate edge in overall level.NÚR · +70 ELO
  • A high-scoring game is expected: Over 2.5 at 57%.OVER 2.5 · 57%
Match result · 1X2Model · fair odds
49%HOME
27%DRAW
24%AWAY
OutcomeChanceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Home49%2.05--
Draw27%3.76--
Away24%4.08--
Goals · over/under and BTTSModel
GoalsChanceBest oddsValue
Over 2.557%--
BTTS · YesInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.57%--
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
Form
ⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Darmstadt4-4-2 · 60%Avg 1505 · 10/11
1
Schuhen
1448↑21
6
Pfeiffer
1593↑6
18
Petretta
1491↑4
25
Mikelbrencis
1333↓1
49
Luhrs
-
17
Klefisch
1611↑5
5
Richter
1594↑4
7
Weisshaupt
1493↑3
16
Akiyama
1508↑6
36
Smit
1531↓2
41
Duijvestijn
1452
1
Reichert
1495↑16
4
Kalogeropoulos
1769
20
Otto
1584↑4
32
Janisch
1445↑5
41
Porstner
1481↑4
6
Markhiev A.
1836↑2
8
Fernandez
1651↑4
10
Justvan
1457↑4
23
Zoma
1660↑1
7
Ghrieb R.
1747↑4
19
Scobel
1460↑2
Núremberg4-2-3-1 · 80%Avg 1599 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Chance
Our probability that it happens.
Fair odds
The odds that match that probability: 1 / Prob.
Best odds
The bookmaker that pays most. Tap it to see them all.
Value
Prob. × Best odds − 1.
+5.5% pays more than the fair odds
-3.1% pays less (the usual case)
Full-Time (90’)10 selections
Match Result (1X2)
3 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Home49%Med2.05--
Draw27%Low3.76--
Away24%Low4.08--
Total Goals
5 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Over 0.594%High1.07--
Over 1.579%High1.27--
Over 2.557%Low1.77--
Over 3.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.33%High3.02--
Over 4.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.15%High6.46--
Both Teams To ScoreInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
2 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Yes57%Low1.76--
No43%Low2.31--
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Selections tagged “Informational” stay on the board on purpose: our calibration audit found no consistent edge over their historical base rate. We flag them instead of quietly dropping them, and their probabilities are shown unchanged.
Player props (goalscorers, shots, cards by player) appear once the confirmed lineups are published near kickoff.