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Segunda División·
Spain
AD Ceuta vs Real Sporting prediction
Segunda División·Spain
Model reading
A very even match, with a slight edge for Real Sporting.
LOW CONFIDENCEAnalysis based purely on the model's quantitative criteria. Not a betting recommendation.
- Real Sporting come in with a moderate edge in overall level.RS · +118 ELO
- The defense of Real Sporting looks able to contain the attack of AD Ceuta.AC
- The model sees a very tight match, hard to call.
- A balanced game on the goals line is expected.
Match result · 1X2Model · fair odds
33%HOME
29%DRAW
37%AWAY
| Outcome | Chance | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 33% | 2.99 | - | - |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | - | - |
| Away | 37% | 2.69 | - | - |
Most likely scorelinesModel
1 - 1
13.4%
0 - 1
10.6%
0 - 0
9.6%
| Goals | Chance | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 45% | - | - |
| BTTS · YesInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 51% | - | - |
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
FormⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Real Sporting4-4-2 · 60%Avg 1494 · 9/11
1
Yáñez
15512
Rosas
136944
Cuenca
144323
Sáenz
14534
Gularte E.
-14
Corredera
16908
Rodríguez
152110
Gelabert
14503
García
14137
Campos
155527
Prendes
-13
Vallejo
14684
Caparrós
15456
Hernández
15913
Matos J.
164834
Mas
-32
Okoro
163415
González J.
14958
Zalazar
146322
Koné K.
15857
Camacho
16739
Escobar
1810AD Ceuta4-2-3-1 · 40%Avg 1591 · 10/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Chance our model's probabilityFair odds 1 / Prob.Best odds the bookmaker that pays most · tap to see them allValue Prob. × Best − 1:+5.5% pays more than the fair odds-3.1% pays less (the usual case)
Full-Time (90’)13 selections
Match Result (1X2)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 33% | Low | 2.99 | - | - | |
| Draw | 29% | Low | 3.41 | - | - | |
| Away | 37% | Low | 2.69 | - | - |
Double Chance
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X | 63% | High | 1.59 | - | - | |
| 12 | 71% | High | 1.42 | - | - | |
| X2 | 67% | High | 1.50 | - | - |
Total Goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90% | High | 1.11 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | High | 1.42 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | Low | 2.22 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 25% | High | 4.07 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 11% | High | 8.98 | - | - |
Both Teams To ScoreInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | Low | 1.94 | - | - | |
| No | 49% | Low | 2.06 | - | - |
Half-Time12 selections
HT Result (1X2)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 27% | Low | 3.69 | - | - | |
| DrawInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 47% | Med | 2.15 | - | - | |
| Away | 26% | Low | 3.79 | - | - |
HT Double Chance
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X | 74% | High | 1.36 | - | - | |
| 12 | 53% | Med | 1.87 | - | - | |
| X2 | 73% | High | 1.37 | - | - |
HT Total Goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 66% | High | 1.52 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 30% | High | 3.35 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | High | 10.26 | - | - |
First to Score - 1st Half
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 34% | Low | 2.90 | - | - | |
| Away | 31% | Low | 3.18 | - | - | |
| No Goal (1H) | 34% | Low | 2.94 | - | - |
Second-Half13 selections
2H Result (1X2)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 31% | Low | 3.20 | - | - | |
| Draw | 38% | Low | 2.61 | - | - | |
| Away | 31% | Low | 3.28 | - | - |
2H Double Chance
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X | 69% | High | 1.44 | - | - | |
| 12 | 62% | High | 1.62 | - | - | |
| X2 | 69% | High | 1.45 | - | - |
2H Total Goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 74% | High | 1.35 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 41% | Med | 2.46 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 15% | High | 6.77 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 4% | High | 22.83 | - | - |
First to Score - 2nd Half
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 37% | Low | 2.69 | - | - | |
| Away | 37% | Low | 2.71 | - | - | |
| No Goal (2H) | 26% | Low | 3.86 | - | - |
Cards19 selections
Total Cards
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 90% | High | 1.11 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 3.5 | 78% | High | 1.28 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% | Med | 1.58 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 47% | Low | 2.11 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 6.5 | 32% | High | 3.13 | - | -2.8 pp |
Home Team Cards
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78% | High | 1.28 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | Low | 1.93 | - | -2.8 pp |
Away Team Cards
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79% | High | 1.26 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | Low | 1.81 | - | -2.8 pp |
Total Yellow Cards
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 87% | High | 1.15 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 3.5 | 73% | High | 1.37 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% | Low | 1.78 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 31% | High | 3.27 | - | -4.5 pp |
Red Card in Match
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red shown | 24% | High | 4.24 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| No red | 76% | High | 1.31 | - | -2.8 pp |
Card Points (Y + 2xR)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 78% | High | 1.28 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% | Med | 1.58 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 47% | Low | 2.11 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 6.5 | 32% | High | 3.13 | - | -4.5 pp |
Corners39 selections
Total CornersInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | 70% | High | 1.43 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 8.5 | 59% | Med | 1.71 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% | Low | 2.10 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% | Med | 2.76 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 27% | High | 3.73 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 19% | High | 5.30 | - | +0.6 pp |
Home Corners
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 86% | High | 1.16 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 3.5 | 74% | High | 1.36 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% | Med | 1.69 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 45% | Low | 2.24 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 6.5 | 31% | High | 3.18 | - | +0.6 pp |
Away Corners
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 73% | High | 1.38 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | Low | 1.82 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% | Med | 2.64 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 24% | High | 4.09 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 6.5 | 15% | High | 6.81 | - | +0.6 pp |
Most Corners (FT)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 62% | High | 1.62 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| TieInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 12% | Low | 8.44 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Away | 27% | Low | 3.77 | - | +0.6 pp |
Most Corners 1st Half
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 54% | Med | 1.85 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| TieInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 18% | Low | 5.43 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Away | 27% | Low | 3.64 | - | +0.6 pp |
Most Corners 2nd Half
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 53% | Med | 1.89 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| TieInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 18% | Low | 5.70 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Away | 30% | Low | 3.37 | - | +0.6 pp |
Corner Asian Handicap
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home +2.5 | 90% | High | 1.11 | - | - | |
| Away -2.5 | 10% | High | 10.12 | - | - | |
| Home +1.5 | 83% | High | 1.20 | - | - | |
| Away -1.5 | 17% | High | 5.92 | - | - | |
| Home +0.5 | 73% | High | 1.36 | - | - | |
| Away -0.5 | 27% | High | 3.77 | - | - | |
| Home -0.5 | 62% | Med | 1.62 | - | - | |
| Away +0.5 | 38% | Med | 2.60 | - | - | |
| Home -1.5 | 49% | Low | 2.06 | - | - | |
| Away +1.5 | 51% | Low | 1.95 | - | - | |
| Home -2.5 | 36% | Med | 2.79 | - | - | |
| Away +2.5 | 64% | Med | 1.56 | - | - | |
| Home -3.5 | 25% | High | 4.08 | - | - | |
| Away +3.5 | 75% | High | 1.33 | - | - |
Shots & Shots on Target84 selections
Total Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 | 88% | High | 1.13 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 20.5 | 79% | High | 1.27 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 22.5 | 67% | High | 1.49 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 24.5 | 53% | Low | 1.87 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 26.5 | 40% | Med | 2.50 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 28.5 | 28% | High | 3.58 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 30.5 | 18% | High | 5.48 | - | +2.3 pp |
Home Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 91% | High | 1.10 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 9.5 | 86% | High | 1.17 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% | High | 1.26 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 73% | High | 1.38 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 65% | Med | 1.55 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 13.5 | 57% | Low | 1.77 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 14.5 | 48% | Low | 2.07 | - | +2.3 pp |
Away Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 68% | High | 1.47 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% | Med | 1.72 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% | Low | 2.09 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 38% | Med | 2.63 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 29% | High | 3.40 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 13.5 | 22% | High | 4.55 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 14.5 | 16% | High | 6.25 | - | +2.3 pp |
1st-Half Total Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 79% | High | 1.27 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% | High | 1.45 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% | Med | 1.72 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 47% | Low | 2.13 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 36% | Med | 2.76 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 13.5 | 27% | High | 3.72 | - | +2.3 pp |
2nd-Half Total Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 86% | High | 1.17 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% | High | 1.27 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 70% | High | 1.43 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 61% | Med | 1.65 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 13.5 | 51% | Low | 1.96 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 14.5 | 42% | Med | 2.41 | - | +2.3 pp |
Shots Asian Handicap
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home +5.5 | 97% | High | 1.03 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away -5.5 | 3% | High | 36.30 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home +3.5 | 94% | High | 1.07 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away -3.5 | 6% | High | 15.45 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home +1.5 | 87% | High | 1.15 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away -1.5 | 13% | High | 7.53 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home -1.5 | 69% | High | 1.44 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away +1.5 | 31% | High | 3.28 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home -3.5 | 54% | Low | 1.84 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away +3.5 | 46% | Low | 2.19 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home -5.5 | 39% | Med | 2.60 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away +5.5 | 61% | Med | 1.63 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home -8.5 | 19% | High | 5.33 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away +8.5 | 81% | High | 1.23 | - | +2.3 pp |
Total SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 82% | High | 1.22 | - | - | |
| Over 6.5 | 71% | High | 1.40 | - | - | |
| Over 7.5 | 59% | Med | 1.71 | - | - | |
| Over 8.5 | 46% | Low | 2.19 | - | - | |
| Over 9.5 | 34% | High | 2.98 | - | - | |
| Over 10.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 23% | High | 4.28 | - | - | |
| Over 11.5 | 15% | High | 6.47 | - | - |
Home SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 83% | High | 1.20 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 68% | High | 1.47 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% | Low | 1.99 | - | - | |
| Over 5.5 | 34% | High | 2.93 | - | - | |
| Over 6.5 | 21% | High | 4.73 | - | - |
Away SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 69% | High | 1.45 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 49% | Low | 2.06 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% | High | 3.30 | - | - | |
| Over 5.5 | 17% | High | 5.88 | - | - |
1st-Half Total SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 71% | High | 1.40 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 51% | Low | 1.96 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 32% | High | 3.12 | - | - | |
| Over 5.5 | 18% | High | 5.61 | - | - |
2nd-Half Total SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 67% | High | 1.49 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5 | 49% | Low | 2.04 | - | - | |
| Over 5.5 | 32% | High | 3.09 | - | - | |
| Over 6.5 | 19% | High | 5.17 | - | - |
Most SOT (FT)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 58% | High | 1.72 | - | - | |
| TieInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 13% | Low | 7.64 | - | - | |
| Away | 29% | Low | 3.47 | - | - |
SOT Asian Handicap
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home +2.5 | 90% | High | 1.11 | - | - | |
| Away -2.5 | 10% | High | 9.73 | - | - | |
| Home +1.5 | 82% | High | 1.22 | - | - | |
| Away -1.5 | 18% | High | 5.54 | - | - | |
| Home -1.5 | 44% | Low | 2.27 | - | - | |
| Away +1.5 | 56% | Low | 1.79 | - | - | |
| Home -2.5 | 31% | High | 3.23 | - | - | |
| Away +2.5 | 69% | High | 1.45 | - | - | |
| Home -3.5 | 20% | High | 5.02 | - | - | |
| Away +3.5 | 80% | High | 1.25 | - | - |
Goal Timing7 selections
First Goal of the Match
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 48% | Med | 2.10 | - | - | |
| Away | 43% | Med | 2.34 | - | - | |
| No Goal (0-0)Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 10% | High | 10.42 | - | - |
Total Goal Minutes
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 90.5 | 57% | Low | 1.77 | - | - | |
| Over 120.5 | 47% | Low | 2.13 | - | - | |
| Over 150.5 | 35% | Med | 2.84 | - | - | |
| Over 180.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 25% | High | 3.95 | - | - |
Handicaps57 selections
Goal European Handicap (3-way)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home -2 | 5% | High | 20.42 | - | - | |
| Draw -2 | 9% | High | 10.67 | - | - | |
| Away -2 | 86% | High | 1.17 | - | - | |
| Home -1 | 14% | High | 7.01 | - | - | |
| Draw -1 | 19% | High | 5.21 | - | - | |
| Away -1 | 67% | High | 1.50 | - | - | |
| Home 0 | 33% | Low | 2.99 | - | - | |
| Draw 0 | 29% | Low | 3.41 | - | - | |
| Away 0 | 37% | Low | 2.69 | - | - | |
| Home +1 | 63% | Med | 1.59 | - | - | |
| Draw +1 | 21% | High | 4.67 | - | - | |
| Away +1 | 16% | High | 6.34 | - | - | |
| Home +2 | 84% | High | 1.19 | - | - | |
| Draw +2 | 10% | High | 9.63 | - | - | |
| Away +2 | 5% | High | 18.57 | - | - |
Goal Asian Handicap
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home -2.5 | 5% | High | 20.42 | - | - | |
| Away +2.5 | 95% | High | 1.05 | - | - | |
| Home -2.25 | 7% | High | 13.81 | - | - | |
| Away +2.25 | 93% | High | 1.08 | - | - | |
| Home -2 | 5% | High | 18.50 | - | - | |
| Away +2 | 95% | High | 1.06 | - | - | |
| Home -1.75 | 12% | High | 8.38 | - | - | |
| Away +1.75 | 88% | High | 1.14 | - | - | |
| Home -1.5 | 14% | High | 7.01 | - | - | |
| Away +1.5 | 86% | High | 1.17 | - | - | |
| Home -1.25 | 19% | High | 5.24 | - | - | |
| Away +1.25 | 81% | High | 1.24 | - | - | |
| Home -1 | 18% | High | 5.66 | - | - | |
| Away +1 | 82% | High | 1.21 | - | - | |
| Home -0.75 | 29% | High | 3.49 | - | - | |
| Away +0.75 | 71% | High | 1.40 | - | - | |
| Home -0.5 | 33% | High | 2.99 | - | - | |
| Away +0.5 | 67% | High | 1.50 | - | - | |
| Home -0.25 | 41% | Med | 2.45 | - | - | |
| Away +0.25 | 59% | Med | 1.69 | - | - | |
| Home 0 | 47% | Med | 2.11 | - | - | |
| Away 0 | 53% | Med | 1.90 | - | - | |
| Home +0.25 | 55% | Low | 1.80 | - | - | |
| Away -0.25 | 45% | Low | 2.25 | - | - | |
| Home +0.5 | 63% | Med | 1.59 | - | - | |
| Away -0.5 | 37% | Med | 2.69 | - | - | |
| Home +0.75 | 68% | High | 1.47 | - | - | |
| Away -0.75 | 32% | High | 3.14 | - | - | |
| Home +1 | 80% | High | 1.25 | - | - | |
| Away -1 | 20% | High | 4.98 | - | - | |
| Home +1.25 | 79% | High | 1.27 | - | - | |
| Away -1.25 | 21% | High | 4.73 | - | - | |
| Home +1.5 | 84% | High | 1.19 | - | - | |
| Away -1.5 | 16% | High | 6.34 | - | - | |
| Home +1.75 | 87% | High | 1.15 | - | - | |
| Away -1.75 | 13% | High | 7.59 | - | - | |
| Home +2 | 94% | High | 1.06 | - | - | |
| Away -2 | 6% | High | 16.64 | - | - | |
| Home +2.25 | 92% | High | 1.09 | - | - | |
| Away -2.25 | 8% | High | 12.53 | - | - | |
| Home +2.5 | 95% | High | 1.06 | - | - | |
| Away -2.5 | 5% | High | 18.57 | - | - |
Correct Score & HT/FT26 selections
Correct Score
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13% | Low | 7.44 | - | - | |
| 0-1 | 11% | Low | 9.41 | - | - | |
| 0-0 | 10% | Low | 10.42 | - | - | |
| 1-0 | 10% | Low | 10.49 | - | - | |
| 1-2 | 8% | Low | 12.21 | - | - | |
| 2-1 | 7% | Low | 13.61 | - | - | |
| 0-2 | 6% | Low | 16.21 | - | - | |
| 2-0 | 6% | Low | 17.96 | - | - | |
| 2-2 | 5% | Low | 18.90 | - | - | |
| 1-3 | 3% | Low | 28.92 | - | - | |
| 3-1 | 3% | Low | 32.05 | - | - | |
| 0-3 | 3% | Low | 38.52 | - | - | |
| 3-0 | 2% | Low | 42.43 | - | - | |
| 2-3 | 2% | Low | 43.93 | - | - | |
| 3-2 | 2% | Low | 48.97 | - | - | |
| 1-4 | 1% | Low | 88.39 | - | - | |
| Any other score | 7% | Low | 13.78 | - | - |
Half-Time / Full-Time
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H/H | 19% | Low | 5.24 | - | - | |
| H/D | 6% | Low | 17.86 | - | - | |
| H/A | 2% | Low | 40.90 | - | - | |
| D/H | 13% | Low | 7.94 | - | - | |
| D/D | 19% | Low | 5.28 | - | - | |
| D/A | 15% | Low | 6.68 | - | - | |
| A/HInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 2% | Low | 55.39 | - | - | |
| A/D | 5% | Low | 20.75 | - | - | |
| A/A | 20% | Low | 5.06 | - | - |
Team & Match Specials19 selections
Home team goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 70% | High | 1.43 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | High | 3.04 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 11% | High | 8.84 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 3% | High | 32.69 | - | - |
Away team goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 72% | High | 1.39 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 37% | Med | 2.72 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | High | 7.18 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 4% | High | 24.64 | - | - |
Win to Nil
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 18% | High | 5.44 | - | - | |
| Away | 21% | High | 4.84 | - | - |
Clean Sheet
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 28% | High | 3.56 | - | - | |
| Away | 30% | High | 3.32 | - | - |
Both Halves Scored
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 20% | High | 4.99 | - | - | |
| Away | 21% | High | 4.82 | - | - |
Odd / Even Total Goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd | 49% | Low | 2.02 | - | - | |
| EvenInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 51% | Low | 1.98 | - | - |
Highest-Scoring HalfInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair odds | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 30% | Low | 3.37 | - | - | |
| Tie | 28% | Low | 3.63 | - | - | |
| 2nd Half | 43% | Med | 2.34 | - | - |
Selections tagged “Informational” stay on the board on purpose: our calibration audit found no consistent edge over their historical base rate. We flag them instead of quietly dropping them, and their probabilities are shown unchanged.
Player props (goalscorers, shots, cards by player) appear once the confirmed lineups are published near kickoff.