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Burgos CF vs Celta de Vigo B prediction

Segunda División·Spain
Burgos CF
ELO 1632
KO
13:00
Sat 7 Nov
Model leadHome win61%

Model reading

Burgos CF start as clear favourites.

HIGH CONFIDENCE

The model sees a fairly clear-cut result.

61%Burgos CF23%Draw16%Celta de Vigo B

Analysis based purely on the model's quantitative criteria. Not a betting recommendation.

  • The model rates Burgos CF clearly above their opponent on overall level.BC · +160 ELO
  • A high-scoring game is expected: Over 2.5 at 56%.OVER 2.5 · 56%
Match result · 1X2Model · fair odds
61%HOME
23%DRAW
16%AWAY
OutcomeChanceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Home61%1.63--
Draw23%4.41--
Away16%6.30--
Goals · over/under and BTTSModel
GoalsChanceBest oddsValue
Over 2.556%--
BTTS · YesInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.51%--
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
Form
ⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Celta de Vigo B3-4-3 · 80%Avg 1550 · 11/11
1
Carrillo
1435
3
Ribes
1519
6
Meixus
1437↓2
20
Rodriguez
1380
2
Gavian
1546
16
Capdevila
1441↑1
18
López
1636
11
Arcos
1638↑5
9
Marin
1672↑3
10
Marcos
1581↑2
15
Kibet
1769↑1
13
Cantero
1631
15
Luengo
1553
22
Martínez
1386↓1
2
Lizancos
1567
8
Sierra
1403
12
Vencedor U.
1627
4
Galdames
1489
19
Llabrés
1639↓2
16
Curro
1469↑1
14
González
1391
7
Karrikaburu J.
1577↑1
Burgos CF4-2-3-1 · 60%Avg 1521 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Chance
Our probability that it happens.
Fair odds
The odds that match that probability: 1 / Prob.
Best odds
The bookmaker that pays most. Tap it to see them all.
Value
Prob. × Best odds − 1.
+5.5% pays more than the fair odds
-3.1% pays less (the usual case)
Full-Time (90’)10 selections
Match Result (1X2)
3 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Home61%High1.63--
Draw23%Low4.41--
Away16%Low6.30--
Total Goals
5 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Over 0.594%High1.07--
Over 1.576%High1.31--
Over 2.556%Low1.79--
Over 3.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.34%High2.95--
Over 4.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.20%High4.92--
Both Teams To ScoreInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
2 selections
SelectionChanceConfidenceFair oddsBest oddsValue
Yes51%Low1.97--
No49%Low2.03--
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Selections tagged “Informational” stay on the board on purpose: our calibration audit found no consistent edge over their historical base rate. We flag them instead of quietly dropping them, and their probabilities are shown unchanged.
Player props (goalscorers, shots, cards by player) appear once the confirmed lineups are published near kickoff.