Back to matches
Championship·
England
Championship·England
Model reading
An open match, with a slight edge for Millwall.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCEAnalysis based purely on the model's quantitative criteria. Not a betting recommendation.
- Millwall come in with a moderate edge in overall level.MIL · +111 ELO
- The attack of Millwall looks a threat to the defense of Derby.MIL
- The model sees an open match.
- A balanced game on the goals line is expected.
Match result · 1X2Model · fair odds
50%HOME
27%DRAW
23%AWAY
| Outcome | Chance | Fair | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 50% | 2.01 | - | - |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | - | - |
| Away | 23% | 4.33 | - | - |
Most likely scorelinesModel
1 - 1
13.9%
1 - 0
11.3%
2 - 1
9.6%
| Goals | Chance | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 49% | - | - |
| BTTS · YesInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 54% | - | - |
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
FormⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Derby4-2-3-1 · 100%Avg 1501 · 11/11
31
Vickers
146023
Ward
132726
Hedges
151228
Sanderson
14666
Langas
14704
Ozoh
141620
Mowatt
17128
Clark
145711
Szmodics
153716
Fuseini
16989
Morris
145334
Marschall
-6
Taylor C.
15845
Cooper
16503
Sturge
14834
Crama
150314
Metcalfe
155749
Mazou-Sacko
132610
Neghli
153922
Lisbie
-17
Sykes
136213
Dykes
1572Millwall4-2-3-1 · 80%Avg 1508 · 9/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Chance our model's probabilityFair 1 / Prob.Best odds the bookmaker that pays most · tap to see them allValue Prob. × Best − 1:+5.5% pays more than fair-3.1% pays less (the usual case)
Full-Time (90’)13 selections
Match Result (1X2)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 50% | Med | 2.01 | - | - | |
| Draw | 27% | Low | 3.68 | - | - | |
| Away | 23% | Low | 4.33 | - | - |
Double Chance
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X | 77% | High | 1.30 | - | - | |
| 12 | 73% | High | 1.37 | - | - | |
| X2 | 50% | Med | 1.99 | - | - |
Total Goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93% | High | 1.07 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | High | 1.34 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | Low | 2.06 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 28% | High | 3.61 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 12% | High | 8.44 | - | - |
Both Teams To ScoreInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54% | Low | 1.84 | - | - | |
| No | 46% | Low | 2.19 | - | - |
Half-Time12 selections
HT Result (1X2)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 39% | Low | 2.57 | - | - | |
| DrawInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 41% | Med | 2.46 | - | - | |
| Away | 20% | Low | 4.89 | - | - |
HT Double Chance
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X | 80% | High | 1.26 | - | - | |
| 12 | 59% | High | 1.69 | - | - | |
| X2 | 61% | High | 1.63 | - | - |
HT Total Goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 71% | High | 1.42 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | High | 3.01 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 11% | High | 9.38 | - | - |
First to Score - 1st Half
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 44% | Med | 2.29 | - | - | |
| Away | 27% | Low | 3.71 | - | - | |
| No Goal (1H) | 29% | Low | 3.40 | - | - |
Second-Half13 selections
2H Result (1X2)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 43% | Med | 2.31 | - | - | |
| Draw | 37% | Low | 2.70 | - | - | |
| Away | 20% | Low | 5.07 | - | - |
2H Double Chance
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X | 80% | High | 1.25 | - | - | |
| 12 | 63% | High | 1.59 | - | - | |
| X2 | 57% | High | 1.76 | - | - |
2H Total Goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 77% | High | 1.30 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 44% | Low | 2.25 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | High | 5.80 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 5% | High | 18.87 | - | - |
First to Score - 2nd Half
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 49% | Med | 2.02 | - | - | |
| Away | 28% | Low | 3.63 | - | - | |
| No Goal (2H) | 23% | Low | 4.35 | - | - |
Cards19 selections
Total Cards
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 76% | High | 1.31 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | Med | 1.75 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% | Med | 2.70 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 22% | High | 4.58 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 6.5 | 12% | High | 8.64 | - | -2.8 pp |
Home Team Cards
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 53% | Low | 1.90 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | High | 4.00 | - | -2.8 pp |
Away Team Cards
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 69% | High | 1.45 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | Med | 2.39 | - | -2.8 pp |
Total Yellow Cards
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 76% | High | 1.31 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | Med | 1.75 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% | High | 3.36 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 16% | High | 6.18 | - | -4.5 pp |
Red Card in Match
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red shown | 15% | High | 6.46 | - | -2.8 pp | |
| No red | 85% | High | 1.18 | - | -2.8 pp |
Card Points (Y + 2xR)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 61% | Med | 1.65 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% | Med | 2.68 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 22% | High | 4.58 | - | -4.5 pp | |
| Over 6.5 | 12% | High | 8.01 | - | -4.5 pp |
Corners39 selections
Total CornersInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | 79% | High | 1.26 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 8.5 | 69% | High | 1.44 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% | Med | 1.70 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 49% | Low | 2.05 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 38% | Med | 2.60 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 29% | High | 3.41 | - | +0.6 pp |
Home Corners
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 92% | High | 1.08 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 3.5 | 84% | High | 1.19 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 72% | High | 1.38 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 59% | Med | 1.70 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 6.5 | 46% | Low | 2.17 | - | +0.6 pp |
Away Corners
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 74% | High | 1.35 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | Low | 1.76 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% | Med | 2.52 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 5.5 | 26% | High | 3.86 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Over 6.5 | 16% | High | 6.22 | - | +0.6 pp |
Most Corners (FT)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 72% | High | 1.39 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| TieInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 10% | Low | 10.45 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Away | 19% | Low | 5.35 | - | +0.6 pp |
Most Corners 1st Half
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 64% | High | 1.57 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| TieInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 16% | Low | 6.37 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Away | 21% | Low | 4.85 | - | +0.6 pp |
Most Corners 2nd Half
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 59% | High | 1.68 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| TieInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 16% | Low | 6.39 | - | +0.6 pp | |
| Away | 25% | Low | 4.00 | - | +0.6 pp |
Corner Asian Handicap
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home +2.5 | 94% | High | 1.07 | - | - | |
| Away -2.5 | 6% | High | 15.50 | - | - | |
| Home +1.5 | 89% | High | 1.13 | - | - | |
| Away -1.5 | 11% | High | 8.75 | - | - | |
| Home +0.5 | 81% | High | 1.23 | - | - | |
| Away -0.5 | 19% | High | 5.35 | - | - | |
| Home -0.5 | 72% | High | 1.39 | - | - | |
| Away +0.5 | 28% | High | 3.54 | - | - | |
| Home -1.5 | 60% | Med | 1.66 | - | - | |
| Away +1.5 | 40% | Med | 2.52 | - | - | |
| Home -2.5 | 48% | Low | 2.08 | - | - | |
| Away +2.5 | 52% | Low | 1.92 | - | - | |
| Home -3.5 | 36% | Med | 2.78 | - | - | |
| Away +3.5 | 64% | Med | 1.56 | - | - |
Shots & Shots on Target84 selections
Total Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 | 88% | High | 1.14 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 20.5 | 78% | High | 1.28 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 22.5 | 66% | High | 1.52 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 24.5 | 52% | Low | 1.92 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 26.5 | 39% | Med | 2.59 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 28.5 | 27% | High | 3.74 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 30.5 | 17% | High | 5.78 | - | +2.3 pp |
Home Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 91% | High | 1.10 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 9.5 | 86% | High | 1.16 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% | High | 1.25 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 73% | High | 1.38 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 65% | Med | 1.54 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 13.5 | 57% | Low | 1.77 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 14.5 | 48% | Low | 2.07 | - | +2.3 pp |
Away Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 66% | High | 1.51 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% | Low | 1.79 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% | Low | 2.19 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 36% | Med | 2.78 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 27% | High | 3.64 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 13.5 | 20% | High | 4.92 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 14.5 | 15% | High | 6.85 | - | +2.3 pp |
1st-Half Total Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 79% | High | 1.27 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% | High | 1.45 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% | Med | 1.73 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 47% | Low | 2.14 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 36% | Med | 2.77 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 13.5 | 27% | High | 3.74 | - | +2.3 pp |
2nd-Half Total Shots
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 85% | High | 1.18 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 10.5 | 77% | High | 1.30 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 11.5 | 68% | High | 1.46 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 12.5 | 59% | Med | 1.70 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 13.5 | 49% | Low | 2.03 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Over 14.5 | 40% | Med | 2.51 | - | +2.3 pp |
Shots Asian Handicap
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home +5.5 | 98% | High | 1.02 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away -5.5 | 2% | High | 41.28 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home +3.5 | 94% | High | 1.06 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away -3.5 | 6% | High | 17.16 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home +1.5 | 88% | High | 1.14 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away -1.5 | 12% | High | 8.20 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home -1.5 | 71% | High | 1.41 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away +1.5 | 29% | High | 3.47 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home -3.5 | 56% | Low | 1.78 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away +3.5 | 44% | Low | 2.28 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home -5.5 | 40% | Med | 2.48 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away +5.5 | 60% | Med | 1.67 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Home -8.5 | 20% | High | 5.02 | - | +2.3 pp | |
| Away +8.5 | 80% | High | 1.25 | - | +2.3 pp |
Total SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 81% | High | 1.24 | - | - | |
| Over 6.5 | 69% | High | 1.44 | - | - | |
| Over 7.5 | 56% | Low | 1.78 | - | - | |
| Over 8.5 | 43% | Low | 2.32 | - | - | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% | High | 3.19 | - | - | |
| Over 10.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 21% | High | 4.66 | - | - | |
| Over 11.5 | 14% | High | 7.16 | - | - |
Home SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 85% | High | 1.18 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | High | 1.42 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% | Low | 1.87 | - | - | |
| Over 5.5 | 37% | Med | 2.70 | - | - | |
| Over 6.5 | 24% | High | 4.24 | - | - |
Away SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 62% | Med | 1.61 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | Med | 2.44 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% | High | 4.21 | - | - | |
| Over 5.5 | 12% | High | 8.16 | - | - |
1st-Half Total SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 70% | High | 1.42 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 50% | Low | 2.01 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 31% | High | 3.23 | - | - | |
| Over 5.5 | 17% | High | 5.86 | - | - |
2nd-Half Total SOT
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 65% | High | 1.54 | - | - | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% | Low | 2.15 | - | - | |
| Over 5.5 | 30% | High | 3.32 | - | - | |
| Over 6.5 | 18% | High | 5.67 | - | - |
Most SOT (FT)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 66% | High | 1.53 | - | - | |
| TieInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 12% | Low | 8.26 | - | - | |
| Away | 22% | Low | 4.47 | - | - |
SOT Asian Handicap
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home +2.5 | 93% | High | 1.07 | - | - | |
| Away -2.5 | 7% | High | 14.39 | - | - | |
| Home +1.5 | 87% | High | 1.15 | - | - | |
| Away -1.5 | 13% | High | 7.62 | - | - | |
| Home -1.5 | 52% | Low | 1.94 | - | - | |
| Away +1.5 | 48% | Low | 2.07 | - | - | |
| Home -2.5 | 38% | Med | 2.65 | - | - | |
| Away +2.5 | 62% | Med | 1.60 | - | - | |
| Home -3.5 | 25% | High | 3.95 | - | - | |
| Away +3.5 | 75% | High | 1.34 | - | - |
Goal Timing7 selections
First Goal of the Match
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 58% | High | 1.73 | - | - | |
| Away | 35% | Low | 2.83 | - | - | |
| No Goal (0-0)Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 7% | High | 14.54 | - | - |
Total Goal Minutes
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 90.5 | 63% | Med | 1.59 | - | - | |
| Over 120.5 | 52% | Low | 1.94 | - | - | |
| Over 150.5 | 38% | Med | 2.67 | - | - | |
| Over 180.5Informational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 25% | High | 3.99 | - | - |
Handicaps57 selections
Goal European Handicap (3-way)
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home -2 | 10% | High | 9.87 | - | - | |
| Draw -2 | 16% | High | 6.29 | - | - | |
| Away -2 | 74% | High | 1.35 | - | - | |
| Home -1 | 26% | High | 3.84 | - | - | |
| Draw -1 | 24% | High | 4.22 | - | - | |
| Away -1 | 50% | Low | 1.99 | - | - | |
| Home 0 | 50% | Med | 2.01 | - | - | |
| Draw 0 | 27% | Low | 3.68 | - | - | |
| Away 0 | 23% | Low | 4.33 | - | - | |
| Home +1 | 77% | High | 1.30 | - | - | |
| Draw +1 | 15% | High | 6.73 | - | - | |
| Away +1 | 8% | High | 12.11 | - | - | |
| Home +2 | 92% | High | 1.09 | - | - | |
| Draw +2 | 6% | High | 16.11 | - | - | |
| Away +2 | 2% | High | 48.74 | - | - |
Goal Asian Handicap
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home -2.5 | 10% | High | 9.87 | - | - | |
| Away +2.5 | 90% | High | 1.11 | - | - | |
| Home -2.25 | 14% | High | 7.09 | - | - | |
| Away +2.25 | 86% | High | 1.16 | - | - | |
| Home -2 | 12% | High | 8.30 | - | - | |
| Away +2 | 88% | High | 1.14 | - | - | |
| Home -1.75 | 22% | High | 4.54 | - | - | |
| Away +1.75 | 78% | High | 1.28 | - | - | |
| Home -1.5 | 26% | High | 3.84 | - | - | |
| Away +1.5 | 74% | High | 1.35 | - | - | |
| Home -1.25 | 32% | High | 3.13 | - | - | |
| Away +1.25 | 68% | High | 1.47 | - | - | |
| Home -1 | 34% | High | 2.93 | - | - | |
| Away +1 | 66% | High | 1.52 | - | - | |
| Home -0.75 | 44% | Low | 2.28 | - | - | |
| Away +0.75 | 56% | Low | 1.78 | - | - | |
| Home -0.5 | 50% | Low | 2.01 | - | - | |
| Away +0.5 | 50% | Low | 1.99 | - | - | |
| Home -0.25 | 57% | Low | 1.77 | - | - | |
| Away +0.25 | 43% | Low | 2.30 | - | - | |
| Home 0 | 68% | High | 1.46 | - | - | |
| Away 0 | 32% | Low | 3.15 | - | - | |
| Home +0.25 | 70% | High | 1.43 | - | - | |
| Away -0.25 | 30% | High | 3.34 | - | - | |
| Home +0.5 | 77% | High | 1.30 | - | - | |
| Away -0.5 | 23% | High | 4.33 | - | - | |
| Home +0.75 | 81% | High | 1.24 | - | - | |
| Away -0.75 | 19% | High | 5.15 | - | - | |
| Home +1 | 90% | High | 1.11 | - | - | |
| Away -1 | 10% | High | 10.31 | - | - | |
| Home +1.25 | 88% | High | 1.14 | - | - | |
| Away -1.25 | 12% | High | 8.35 | - | - | |
| Home +1.5 | 92% | High | 1.09 | - | - | |
| Away -1.5 | 8% | High | 12.11 | - | - | |
| Home +1.75 | 93% | High | 1.07 | - | - | |
| Away -1.75 | 7% | High | 14.91 | - | - | |
| Home +2 | 98% | High | 1.02 | - | - | |
| Away -2 | 2% | High | 45.72 | - | - | |
| Home +2.25 | 96% | High | 1.04 | - | - | |
| Away -2.25 | 4% | High | 27.75 | - | - | |
| Home +2.5 | 98% | High | 1.02 | - | - | |
| Away -2.5 | 2% | High | 48.74 | - | - |
Correct Score & HT/FT26 selections
Correct Score
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 14% | Low | 7.19 | - | - | |
| 1-0 | 11% | Low | 8.86 | - | - | |
| 2-1 | 10% | Low | 10.40 | - | - | |
| 2-0 | 9% | Low | 11.25 | - | - | |
| 0-1 | 7% | Low | 14.23 | - | - | |
| 0-0 | 7% | Low | 14.54 | - | - | |
| 1-2 | 6% | Low | 16.48 | - | - | |
| 3-1 | 6% | Low | 17.02 | - | - | |
| 2-2 | 5% | Low | 18.35 | - | - | |
| 3-0 | 4% | Low | 23.91 | - | - | |
| 0-2 | 3% | Low | 28.80 | - | - | |
| 3-2 | 2% | Low | 41.12 | - | - | |
| 1-3 | 2% | Low | 43.58 | - | - | |
| 4-1 | 2% | Low | 50.91 | - | - | |
| 4-0 | 2% | Low | 52.18 | - | - | |
| 2-3 | 2% | Low | 65.16 | - | - | |
| Any other score | 7% | Low | 13.86 | - | - |
Half-Time / Full-Time
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H/H | 32% | Low | 3.14 | - | - | |
| H/D | 5% | Low | 18.66 | - | - | |
| H/A | 2% | Low | 61.85 | - | - | |
| D/H | 15% | Low | 6.46 | - | - | |
| D/D | 17% | Low | 5.99 | - | - | |
| D/A | 9% | Low | 11.73 | - | - | |
| A/HInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 2% | Low | 42.06 | - | - | |
| A/D | 5% | Low | 19.62 | - | - | |
| A/A | 13% | Low | 7.71 | - | - |
Team & Match Specials19 selections
Home team goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 81% | High | 1.23 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 46% | Low | 2.16 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | High | 4.91 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 7% | High | 14.37 | - | - |
Away team goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 66% | High | 1.51 | - | - | |
| Over 1.5 | 27% | High | 3.65 | - | - | |
| Over 2.5 | 8% | High | 12.40 | - | - | |
| Over 3.5 | 2% | High | 50.63 | - | - |
Win to Nil
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 27% | High | 3.76 | - | - | |
| Away | 12% | High | 8.26 | - | - |
Clean Sheet
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 34% | High | 2.95 | - | - | |
| Away | 19% | High | 5.34 | - | - |
Both Halves Scored
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 32% | High | 3.12 | - | - | |
| Away | 15% | High | 6.59 | - | - |
Odd / Even Total Goals
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd | 49% | Low | 2.05 | - | - | |
| EvenInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge. | 51% | Low | 1.96 | - | - |
Highest-Scoring HalfInformational market: in our calibration audit the model does not consistently beat this selection’s historical base rate. The probability is real, but it carries no measured edge.
| Selection | Chance | Confidence | Fair | Best odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 30% | Low | 3.32 | - | - | |
| Tie | 27% | Low | 3.74 | - | - | |
| 2nd Half | 43% | Med | 2.32 | - | - |
Selections tagged “Informational” stay on the board on purpose: our calibration audit found no consistent edge over their historical base rate. We flag them instead of quietly dropping them, and their probabilities are shown unchanged.
Player props (goalscorers, shots, cards by player) appear once the confirmed lineups are published near kickoff.