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Sat 31 Oct19:45 UTC
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AC Milan vs Inter: Milan derby preview, probable line-ups and prediction

The leaders against a Milan side unbeaten in six derbies.

BetPlanners
BetPlanners
Model team
Oct 30, 2026 · 1 min read

Seven points separate the leaders from fifth place: Inter 25, Milan 18.

Who wins, according to the model (90 minutes)
25%Milan
24%Draw
51%Inter
BetPlanners model, 30 Oct 2026
25Inter points, top of the table
18Milan points, fifth
6derbies in a row without a Milan defeat
130Elo points in Inter's favour

How they arrive

Last five games (most recent first)
AC MilanAC Milan
L2-4Bologna
W2-0Udinese
L0-3Bournemouth
W3-2Atalanta
W4-0Salzburg
InterInter
W2-0Venezia
W2-1Fiorentina
W1-0Shakhtar
W3-1Bologna
L3-4Club Brugge

Inter have won eight of nine league games; their only defeat in the last six came in Europe. Milan swing from 4-0 in Salzburg to 3-0 lost at Bournemouth.

Head to head

Record since 2015 and latest meetings
9 Milan7 Draws14 Inter
Since 2015-16, all competitions · 2.6 goals per game
Mar 8, 2026Milan1-0InterSerie A
Nov 23, 2025Inter0-1MilanSerie A
Apr 23, 2025Inter0-3MilanCoppa Italia
Apr 2, 2025Milan1-1InterCoppa Italia
Feb 2, 2025Milan1-1InterSerie A
Sep 22, 2024Inter1-2MilanSerie A

In the long run, Inter. Lately, Milan: six derbies unbeaten (four wins, two draws), including both league derbies last season, each won 1-0.

Probable line-ups

Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
Form
ⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Inter3-5-2 · 100%Avg 1644 · 11/11
1
Martinez
1431↑6
95
Bastoni
1537↓6
25
Akanji
1734↑1
31
Bisseck
1548↓2
23
Barella
1695↓4
32
Dimarco
1637↓1
7
Zielinski
1718↓3
17
Diouf
1498↓3
8
Sucic
1752↓2
9
Thuram
1662↑4
14
Bonny
1868
16
Maignan
1462↑10
31
Pavlovic
1563↓5
5
De Winter
1542
23
Tomori
1584↓6
30
Jashari A.
1794↓1
33
Bartesaghi
1427↓2
80
Musah
1629↓1
12
Rabiot A.
1508↓2
20
Hutchinson
1403↑1
70
Cissé
1753↓2
9
Ramos
1609
AC Milan3-4-2-1 · 60%Avg 1570 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday

Built from each side's last five starting line-ups; it usually gets about seven of the eleven names right. The confirmed XIs reach the match page in the last hour before kick-off.

Goals, corners and cards

FigureProbability of each market, %
Over 2.5 goals56%
Both teams score60%
Over 3.5 cards55%
Over 9.5 corners43%
Over 3.5 goals33%
BetPlanners model, 30 Oct 2026

Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (11%) and 0-1 (9%). Inter score first 56% of the time, and a heated derby: over 3.5 cards at 55%.

If you are going to bet

Fair odds according to the model
Inter win1.96prob. · 51%
Draw4.17prob. · 24%
Over 2.5 goals1.79prob. · 56%

Fair odds = 100 / probability. If your bookmaker pays more, the price beats the model.

Bet only what you can afford to lose · 18+

The takeaway

Inter are favourites (51%), but not overwhelming ones, and Milan have stopped losing this game.

Illustrative analysis from the BetPlanners model. Real odds, not tips: not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.
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AC Milan vs Inter: Milan derby preview, probable line-ups and prediction | BetPlanners