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BundesligaAllianz Arena
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
Sat 31 Oct17:30 UTC
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: Preview, probable line-ups and prediction

First against second, both unbeaten. The model sees a clear favourite.

BetPlanners
BetPlanners
Model team
Oct 30, 2026 · 1 min read

Whoever wins goes clear at the top of the Bundesliga.

Who wins, according to the model (90 minutes)
63%Bayern
22%Draw
15%Dortmund
BetPlanners model, 30 Oct 2026
17-17points each after seven rounds
25-6Bayern goals for and against
12-4Dortmund goals for and against
210Elo points in Bayern's favour

How they arrive

Last five games (most recent first)
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
W6-1Magdeburg
W3-1Freiburg
D2-2Arsenal
W6-1RB Leipzig
D3-3Viking
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
W3-2Werder Bremen
W1-0Eintracht Frankfurt
W2-1Sabah
D0-0Union Berlin
L0-1Bodo/Glimt

Bayern arrive in full flow (6-1 in the cup on Wednesday). Dortmund have the tighter defence, 4 conceded to Bayern's 6, and keep winning by narrow margins.

Head to head

Record since 2015 and latest meetings
17 Bayern4 Draws4 Dortmund
Since 2015-16, all competitions · 3.8 goals per game
Feb 28, 2026Dortmund2-3BayernBundesliga
Oct 18, 2025Bayern2-1DortmundBundesliga
Apr 12, 2025Bayern2-2DortmundBundesliga
Nov 30, 2024Dortmund1-1BayernBundesliga
Mar 30, 2024Bayern0-2DortmundBundesliga
Nov 4, 2023Dortmund0-4BayernBundesliga

Bayern are unbeaten in the last four Klassiker. Dortmund's last win in the fixture was 2-0 in Munich in March 2024.

Probable line-ups

Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
Form
ⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Borussia Dortmund3-4-2-1 · 80%Avg 1532 · 11/11
1
Kobel
1458
3
Anton
1634
4
Schlotterbeck
1446
22
Gadou
1577↑2
25
Veerman
1923
26
Ryerson
1283↓1
8
Nmecha
1513
24
Svensson
1471
17
Chukwuemeka C.
1444
20
Sabitzer
1430
9
Guirassy
1669↓1
40
Urbig
1494
27
Laimer
1268
11
Brown
1230↓1
2
Upamecano
1580↑1
44
Stanisic
1285↓1
8
Bischof
1952
6
Kimmich
1841
17
Olise
1975
34
Saibari
1367↑2
42
Karl
1613↑1
9
Kane
1869
Bayern Munich4-2-3-1 · 100%Avg 1589 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday

Built from each side's last five starting line-ups; it usually gets about seven of the eleven names right. The confirmed XIs reach the match page in the last hour before kick-off.

Goals, corners and cards

FigureProbability of each market, %
Over 2.5 goals73%
Both teams score60%
Over 3.5 goals54%
Over 9.5 corners50%
Over 3.5 cards45%
BetPlanners model, 30 Oct 2026

Most likely scores: 2-2 (7.8%), 3-0 (7.7%) and 1-1 (7.5%). Bayern score first 68% of the time.

If you are going to bet

Fair odds according to the model
Bayern win1.59prob. · 63%
Over 2.5 goals1.37prob. · 73%
Both teams score1.67prob. · 60%

Fair odds = 100 / probability. If your bookmaker pays more, the price beats the model.

Bet only what you can afford to lose · 18+

The takeaway

Level in the table, not in the model: Bayern 63%, and goals expected (over 2.5 at 73%).

Illustrative analysis from the BetPlanners model. Real odds, not tips: not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.
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