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Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Tue 3 Nov20:00 UTC
Bayern MúnichBayern Múnich

Atlético de Madrid vs Bayern Múnich: Preview, probable line-ups and prediction

Bayern Múnich are favourites for the model (51%), but it is far from settled.

BetPlanners
BetPlanners
Model team
Nov 1, 2026 · 1 min read

Atlético de Madrid (42nd, 4 pts) host Bayern Múnich (36th, 5 pts) in the Champions League.

Who wins, according to the model (90 minutes)
29%Atlético de Madrid
20%Draw
51%Bayern Múnich
BetPlanners model
4Atlético de Madrid points (42nd)
5Bayern Múnich points (36th)
4-3Atlético de Madrid goals for and against
10-5Bayern Múnich goals for and against

How they arrive

Last five games (most recent first)
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
W2-0Levante
W1-0Deportivo de La Coruña
D1-1Stuttgart
W1-0Espanyol
W2-0Manchester Utd
Bayern MúnichBayern Múnich
D2-2Borussia Dortmund
W6-1Magdeburgo
W3-1Friburgo
D2-2Arsenal
W6-1RB Leipzig

Atlético de Madrid have won 4 of their last five; Bayern Múnich, 3.

Head to head

Record since 2015 and latest meetings
2 Atlético de Madrid1 Draws3 Bayern Múnich
Since 2015-16, all competitions · 2.0 goals per game
Dec 1, 2020Atlético de Madrid1-1Bayern MúnichChampions League
Oct 21, 2020Bayern Múnich4-0Atlético de MadridChampions League
Dec 6, 2016Bayern Múnich1-0Atlético de MadridChampions League
Sep 28, 2016Atlético de Madrid1-0Bayern MúnichChampions League
May 3, 2016Bayern Múnich2-1Atlético de MadridChampions League
Apr 27, 2016Atlético de Madrid1-0Bayern MúnichChampions League

Since 2015: Atlético de Madrid 2 wins, Bayern Múnich 3, 1 draws. Bayern Múnich are unbeaten in the last 3 meetings.

Probable line-ups

Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
Form
ⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Bayern Múnich4-2-3-1 · 100%Avg 1587 · 11/11
40
Urbig
1486↓8
27
Laimer
1293↑26
2
Upamecano
1582↑3
11
Brown
1292↑64
44
Stanisic
1276↓9
45
Pavlovic
1884↓6
8
Bischof
1943↓9
17
Olise
1925↓51
34
Saibari
1336↓34
7
Gnabry S.
1585↓50
9
Kane
1850↓19
13
Oblak
1610↓5
17
Hancko
1580↑1
22
Grimaldo
1524↓1
18
Pubill
1526↑1
14
Llorente M.
1589↓1
8
Barrios P.
1664↑8
20
Simeone
1400↑3
10
Baena
1537↑6
23
Hjulmand
1779↑2
19
Alvarez
1633
7
Lee
1495↑2
Atlético de Madrid4-4-2 · 80%Avg 1576 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday

Built from each side's last five starting line-ups; it usually gets about seven of the eleven names right. The confirmed XIs reach the match page in the last hour before kick-off.

Goals, corners and cards

FigureProbability of each market, %
Over 3.5 cards62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Both teams score54%
Over 9.5 corners45%
Over 3.5 goals36%
BetPlanners model

Most likely scores: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-1 (8.1%), 1-1 (8.0%). Bayern Múnich score first 54% of the time.

If you are going to bet

Fair odds according to the model
Bayern Múnich win1.96prob. · 51%
Over 2.5 goals1.64prob. · 61%
Both teams score1.85prob. · 54%

Fair odds = 100 / probability. If your bookmaker pays more, the price beats the model.

Bet only what you can afford to lose · 18+

The takeaway

Model favourite: Bayern Múnich (51%). Over 2.5 goals: 61%.

Illustrative analysis from the BetPlanners model. Real odds, not tips: not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.
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