Copa do BrasilArena do Grêmio
GrêmioSun 1 Nov21:30 UTC
Atlético-MGGrêmio vs Atlético-MG: Preview, probable line-ups and prediction
An even game: no result goes above 41% for the model.
BetPlanners
Model team
Grêmio (2nd, 14 pts) host Atlético-MG (7th, 11 pts) in the Copa do Brasil.
BetPlanners model
14Grêmio points (2nd)
11Atlético-MG points (7th)
10-2Grêmio goals for and against
7-5Atlético-MG goals for and against
How they arrive
Last five games (most recent first)
GrêmioW2-0Athletico-PR
W1-0Coritiba
L2-4Cruzeiro
D1-1Internacional
D1-1Remo
Atlético-MGL0-1Cruzeiro
L2-3Flamengo
L0-2Montevideo City (Uru)
W1-0Coritiba
W3-0Montevideo City (Uru)
Grêmio have won 2 of their last five; Atlético-MG, 2.
Head to head
Record since 2015 and latest meetings
14 Grêmio3 Draws7 Atlético-MG
Since 2015-16, all competitions · 3.1 goals per game
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético-MG | 3-0 | Grêmio | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Grêmio | 2-1 | Atlético-MG | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Atlético-MG | 1-3 | Grêmio | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Grêmio | 2-1 | Atlético-MG | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Atlético-MG | 2-1 | Grêmio | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Grêmio | 2-3 | Atlético-MG | Brasileirao Serie A |
Since 2015: Grêmio 14 wins, Atlético-MG 7, 3 draws.
Probable line-ups
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
FormⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Atlético-MG4-2-3-1 · 80%Avg 1547 · 11/11
1
Gabriel Delfim
1646↓16
Lodi
1517↓440
Vitao
1552↓313
Lyanco
1447↓12
Natanael
1492↓121
Franco
1374↓115
Castano
174830
Victor Hugo
1513↑217
Igor Gomes
1553↑211
Bernard
1553↑119
Reinier
1624↑21
Weverton
1761↓282
Wallace
162723
Marlon
14304
Walter Kannemann
151320
Villasanti M.
1456↑115
Danilo Barbosa
14858
Noriega
1513↑310
Krovinovic
1749↑249
Amuzu F.
1523↑195
Carlos Vinicius
1496↑17
Pavón
1573↑1Grêmio3-4-3 · 40%Avg 1557 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Built from each side's last five starting line-ups; it usually gets about seven of the eleven names right. The confirmed XIs reach the match page in the last hour before kick-off.
Goals, corners and cards
FigureProbability of each market, %
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15.8%), 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Grêmio score first 48% of the time.
If you are going to bet
Fair odds according to the model
Grêmio win2.44prob. · 41%
Draw3.33prob. · 30%
Over 2.5 goals2.63prob. · 38%
Fair odds = 100 / probability. If your bookmaker pays more, the price beats the model.
Bet only what you can afford to lose · 18+
The takeaway
No clear favourite (top result 41%). Over 2.5 goals: 38%.
Illustrative analysis from the BetPlanners model. Real odds, not tips: not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.