Brasileirao Serie AEstadio Do MorumBIS
São PauloThu 5 Nov00:30 UTC
CorinthiansSão Paulo vs Corinthians: Preview, probable line-ups and prediction
São Paulo are favourites for the model (50%), but it is far from settled.
BetPlanners
Model team
São Paulo (10th, 43 pts) host Corinthians (17th, 36 pts) in the Brasileirao Serie A.
BetPlanners model
43São Paulo points (10th)
36Corinthians points (17th)
39-39São Paulo goals for and against
36-42Corinthians goals for and against
How they arrive
Last five games (most recent first)
São PauloL2-3Bahia
D1-1Mirassol
W1-0Vasco
W2-1Vitória
L0-2Cruzeiro
CorinthiansW2-0Mirassol
L2-3Vasco
D1-1Vitória
L1-4Palmeiras
L1-2Internacional
São Paulo have won 2 of their last five; Corinthians, 1.
Head to head
Record since 2015 and latest meetings
9 São Paulo9 Draws7 Corinthians
Since 2015-16, all competitions · 2.7 goals per game
| May 10, 2026 | Corinthians | 3-2 | São Paulo | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Corinthians | 3-1 | São Paulo | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Jul 20, 2025 | São Paulo | 2-0 | Corinthians | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Sep 29, 2024 | São Paulo | 3-1 | Corinthians | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Jun 16, 2024 | Corinthians | 2-2 | São Paulo | Brasileirao Serie A |
| Sep 30, 2023 | São Paulo | 2-1 | Corinthians | Brasileirao Serie A |
Since 2015: São Paulo 9 wins, Corinthians 7, 9 draws.
Probable line-ups
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
FormⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Corinthians4-2-3-1 · 60%Avg 1514 · 11/11
1
Hugo Souza
1568↑72
Matheuzinho
1440↓413
Gustavo Henrique
151421
Matheus Bidu
149226
Angileri
16027
Breno Bidon
1523↓149
Andre
1371↑18
Garro
1492↑177
Lingard
1360↑211
Vitinho
1651↑19
Yuri Alberto
1643↑123
Rafael
1424↑85
Robert Arboleda
1572↓128
Newton
149435
Sabino
1622↓116
Bobadilla
147632
Pedro Lima
1369↑912
Iago Borduchi
1418↑18
Marcos Antonio
1710↑237
Artur
1612↑110
Luciano
1465↑29
Jonathan Calleri
1572↑2São Paulo3-4-2-1 · 80%Avg 1521 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Built from each side's last five starting line-ups; it usually gets about seven of the eleven names right. The confirmed XIs reach the match page in the last hour before kick-off.
Goals, corners and cards
FigureProbability of each market, %
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.6%), 2-1 (10.9%). São Paulo score first 59% of the time.
If you are going to bet
Fair odds according to the model
São Paulo win2.00prob. · 50%
Over 2.5 goals2.04prob. · 49%
Both teams score1.82prob. · 55%
Fair odds = 100 / probability. If your bookmaker pays more, the price beats the model.
Bet only what you can afford to lose · 18+
The takeaway
Model favourite: São Paulo (50%). Over 2.5 goals: 49%.
Illustrative analysis from the BetPlanners model. Real odds, not tips: not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.