Europa LeagueBayArena
Bayer LeverkusenThu 5 Nov20:00 UTC
MarsellaBayer Leverkusen vs Marsella: Preview, probable line-ups and prediction
Bayer Leverkusen are favourites for the model (54%), but it is far from settled.
BetPlanners
Model team
Bayer Leverkusen (10th, 9 pts) host Marsella (71st, 0 pts) in the Europa League.
BetPlanners model
9Bayer Leverkusen points (10th)
0Marsella points (71st)
8-0Bayer Leverkusen goals for and against
1-6Marsella goals for and against
How they arrive
Last five games (most recent first)
Bayer LeverkusenL2-4Stuttgart
W5-2Núremberg
L0-3Hoffenheim
W2-0OFI Creta (Gre)
W2-1Friburgo
MarsellaW2-0Toulouse
W4-3Le Havre
L0-1Sturm Graz (Aut)
W5-2Angers
L0-1Olympiacos
Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last five; Marsella, 3.
Probable line-ups
Probable XImost frequent starters · 2023+
FormⓘIn league: form vs peers in the same league. Cross-league: adjusted for league strength so players from different leagues can be compared. The two scales are not comparable to each other.
Marsella4-2-3-1 · 80%Avg 1565 · 11/11
1
De Lange
1556↓221
Aguerd N.
1629↑522
Weah
1485↑633
Emerson
1479↑64
Egan-Riley
1574↑46
Nnadi
1519↓142
Kamissoko
1700↓114
Paixao
1520↓48
Abdelli
1431↓377
Harit A.
1662↑29
Gouiri
1657↓51
Flekken
14722
Medina
1548↑512
Tapsoba
14893
Gutiérrez M.
1421↓24
Quansah
134624
García
18886
Fernandez
16879
Moreira
1479↓330
Maza
1511↑17
Hofmann
1465↑114
Schick
1680↓2Bayer Leverkusen4-2-3-1 · 100%Avg 1544 · 11/11
Lines reflect formation rows; order within a line is not positional.
Player form vs peers, 2025+ ⓘRecent-form rating vs peers in the same league and position band, 2025+ data. Not an Elo. Dash = no 2025+ data. Up/down arrows = change vs yesterday (In-league scope). · - no data · ↑↓ vs yesterday
Built from each side's last five starting line-ups; it usually gets about seven of the eleven names right. The confirmed XIs reach the match page in the last hour before kick-off.
Goals, corners and cards
FigureProbability of each market, %
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Bayer Leverkusen score first 60% of the time.
If you are going to bet
Fair odds according to the model
Bayer Leverkusen win1.85prob. · 54%
Over 2.5 goals1.69prob. · 59%
Both teams score1.75prob. · 57%
Fair odds = 100 / probability. If your bookmaker pays more, the price beats the model.
Bet only what you can afford to lose · 18+
The takeaway
Model favourite: Bayer Leverkusen (54%). Over 2.5 goals: 59%.
Illustrative analysis from the BetPlanners model. Real odds, not tips: not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.